[Stock & Land, Thursday, 18 February, 2010] AUSTRALIA’S plant-based industries face threats from invasive species. These include those already in Australia that have not reached their full potential range and those which have not yet arrived in Australia but would prove devastating if they did. While producers need a plan to cope with such threats if they eventuate, there is a lack of information on these pests which makes the use of risk assessment tools such as computer simulation models problematic. Risk assessment is also complicated by the fact the context in which invasive species management and planning decisions must be made is constantly changing.
A group of Co-operative Research Centre for National Plant Biosecurity scientists from CSIRO, Department of Primary Industries Victoria and Department of Agriculture and Food Western Australia has been looking at ways of protecting Australia from incursions of exotic pest species by identifing and assessing the potential risks. Research by the team, led by Dr David Cook (CSIRO Entomology), has produced decision-support technologies to help horticultural industries develop plans for dealing with the impacts of invasive species. These tools combine computer simulation models of scenarios associated with pest outbreaks with a "triple bottom line" assessment of economic, social and environmental consequences of invasion. Together, these are used to suggest the highest priority threats, how future incursions might be managed and how to cope with uncertainty about available information (due to errors in or imprecise measurements of data, ambiguous or vague language or insufficient information). The results from these tools can then be included in plans for development of the industry and future research.
One potential threat the team examined was fire blight, a bacterial disease of apples and pears found in many fruit-producing regions of the world, including New Zealand, but absent from Australia. Australia’s freedom from the disease and reluctance to import apples from abroad had been the cause of tension between Australia and NZ for more than 20 years. The ban was lifted in 2007.
A bio-economic impact simulation model was used to look at the reasoning behind Australia’s historical risk management measures in regard to NZ apple imports. Using the model, the team examined the costs of several different fire blight outbreak and response scenarios and compared these costs with the potential gains Australian consumers might enjoy from purchasing foreign apples at a lower price. Although there was large scientific and economic uncertainty about the potential impact on Australia if fire blight was accidentally introduced, the team found the gains to consumers from apple imports were relatively small, due to high transport costs.
New technology has shed light on the biosecurity impact of New Zealand apple importation.
The team demonstrated its decision-support tools using the fire blight example at a workshop in Canberra. Industry representatives and regulators agreed the tools would provide valuable assistance in prioritising hiosecurity and informing government policy on biosecurity. To ensure the uptake of the technologies they have developed, the team will investigate further opportunities to employ decision-support tools with Apple and Pear Australia Ltd, the Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation and other potential beneficiaries of the technology.
